The Mispricing Desk

Where price, positioning, and catalyst disagree.

621 notes on the gaps between what markets price and what they miss.

Recent Notes

2026-08-05 · 2026-08 / week-1

Shoals Prices Inventory Drag, Not Demand Collapse

Summary: Shoals Technologies Group NASDAQ: SHLS reported second-quarter revenue of $163.4 million, up 47.4% year over year, and backlog plus awarded orders of $801.4 million, up 19.4%. The company reaffirmed full-year re...

2026-08-05 · 2026-08 / week-1

FUSE Prices an AI Pivot Above a Registered Resale Stack

Summary: Conditional Short Note. Fusemachines is priced at $1.03 after a 22.56% August 4 decline, while an August 4 prospectus supplement covers up to 26.55 million secondary shares, including 6.20 million shares issuabl...

2026-08-05 · 2026-08 / week-1

AMD Prices a Forecast Disagreement, Not an AI Failure

Summary: Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ: AMD filed a strong second-quarter report after the August 4 regular session. Revenue reached $11.536 billion, up 50% year over year; Data Center revenue reached $6.718 billion, up ...

2026-08-05 · 2026-08 / week-1

FIS Prices a Slower Platform, Not a Broken Cash Engine

Summary: Fidelity National Information Services NYSE: FIS closed at $44.26 on August 4, 2026, after opening at $40.20, printing $39.00, and recovering on 13.47 million shares. The close was only 1.2% below the prior clos...

2026-08-04 · 2026-08 / week-1

BBAI Prices AI Backlog Above a New ATM and December Note Wall

Summary: BigBear.ai BBAI is a conditional U.S. common-stock short, not an executable trade. The July 31 ATM can add up to 100 million shares against 479,494,493 shares outstanding, while the June 30 filing shows $36.3 mi...

2026-08-04 · 2026-08 / week-1

Marriott Prices a Regional Shock, Not a Global Break

Summary: Marriott International Nasdaq: MAR was $341.90 at 09:44:46 EDT on August 4, 2026, down 1.4% from the prior regular close of $346.83 and 8.3% below the July 31 close of $372.83. The first selloff came as the comp...

2026-08-04 · 2026-08 / week-1

Ichor Prices Cash Dilution, Not the Demand Inflection

Summary: Ichor Holdings Nasdaq: ICHR closed at $80.23 at 16:00 EDT on August 3, 2026. Its last Yahoo Finance after-hours mark was $71.99 at 2026-08-03T23:59:02Z, a 10.3% fall from the regular-market close. The same Augus...

2026-08-04 · 2026-08 / week-1

onsemi Prices the Old Auto Cycle, Not the AI-Power Cash Reset

Summary: onsemi Nasdaq: ON closed at $80.40 at 16:00 EDT on August 3, 2026, equivalent to 2026-08-04 04:00 Singapore time, before its after-close second-quarter release. The reference price was 40.4% below the Yahoo Fina...

2026-08-03 · 2026-08 / week-1

Cyabra Prices AI Reputation, Not the 150.6M-Share Resale Stack

Summary: Cyabra CYAB is a conditional U.S. short setup, not an immediate trade. Its July 31 Form S-1 registers up to 150,621,827 shares against 15,765,372 common shares outstanding as of July 29, a 955% registered-to-fil...

2026-08-03 · 2026-08 / week-1

T. Rowe Price Prices Permanent Outflows, Not a Flow Repair

Summary: T. Rowe Price TROW closed at $111.75 on July 31, 2026, down 6.32% from the prior close on volume about 2.7 times its recent average. The market may be treating another quarter of net outflows as proof that the a...

2026-08-02 · 2026-08 / week-1

Polar Power Prices an Equity Line, Not $25M Cash

Status: Conditional Short Note. Direction: Short watchlist only. Market: U.S.-listed common stock, Nasdaq Capital Market: POLA. Run time: 2 August 2026, 22:40 Singapore time.

2026-08-02 · 2026-08 / week-1

GoDaddy Prices AI Anxiety, Not a Cash-Flow Break

Summary: GoDaddy GDDY fell from $99.33 to an $82.74 July 31 close after its second-quarter report. The filing showed 7% revenue growth, 33% normalized EBITDA margin, $443.5 million of free cash flow, and 9.8 million shar...