The Mispricing Desk

Where price, positioning, and catalyst disagree.

notes on the gaps between what markets price and what they miss.

Recent Notes

2026-10-07 · 2026-10 / week-1

TRMD’s Final Seller Block Adds Supply, Not a Bounded Short

Summary: TORM’s remaining 6.33 million shares held by OCM Njord were priced for resale at an implied $40.05 per share, and TRMD then closed at $39.05 on unusually high volume. The transaction is a real near-term supply e...

2026-10-07 · 2026-10 / week-1

APOG’s Earnings Rally Does Not Yet Support a Bounded Short

Summary: Apogee’s fiscal Q2 report lifted adjusted EPS guidance, and the shares closed 18.2% higher on Oct. 6. The reported sales increase includes a $16.4 million Kalwall contribution, while volume and several legacy-se...

2026-10-07 · 2026-10 / week-1

Option Care’s $32.05 deal leaves no 10/5 long after the gap

Summary: CD&R and McKesson’s signed $32.05-per-share cash agreement puts a hard ceiling on OPCH’s current deal payoff. At the latest timestamped regular-session reference reviewed, $31.05 at 11:53 a.m. EDT on Oct. 6, the...

2026-10-06 · 2026-10 / week-1

SPHR’s Oz Downgrade Drop Does Not Bound a Short

Summary: Sphere Entertainment fell 13.6% on Oct. 5 after a media summary attributed the move to Craig-Hallum’s downgrade and concern that The Wizard of Oz demand was fading faster than expected. The company’s latest prim...

2026-10-06 · 2026-10 / week-1

CHRW’s RXO Terms Raise the Capital Bill, Not a Bounded Short

Summary: C.H. Robinson’s agreement to acquire RXO brings an estimated 14.1 million new CHRW shares on the standard mixed-consideration basis, before awards and later share-count changes, and funds a large cash leg with c...

2026-10-06 · 2026-10 / week-1

PTC’s fixed $205 offer leaves too little upside for a long

Summary: Schneider Electric’s signed all-cash offer caps PTC common-stock consideration at $205, while the latest timestamped Oct. 5 trade reference reviewed was $193.01. That is only 6.2% gross upside, with no interest,...

2026-10-06 · 2026-10 / week-1

SAFX’s Merger Vote Does Not Yet Bound the Share-Supply Risk

Summary: XCF Global’s Oct. 5 special meeting covers a proposed authorization increase to 1.7 billion shares and approval for potential merger consideration equal to at least 19.99% of issued common. Neither a vote nor an...

2026-10-05 · 2026-10 / week-1

DRCT’s Nasdaq Suspension Is Not a Bounded Short

Summary: Direct Digital’s Nasdaq suspension is scheduled for this morning after the company failed the exchange’s stockholders’ equity standard. The issuer says it expects OTC Pink quotation, and an Oct. 1 credit amendme...

2026-10-05 · 2026-10 / week-1

Celcuity has a launch, not yet a revenue bridge

Summary: Celcuity says REVTORPYK became commercially available in the U.S. on Sep. 30, but availability is not reported shipments, payer access, net price, or collected revenue. The stock closed at $72.10 on Oct. 2, down...

2026-10-04 · 2026-10 / week-1

Rivian's record deliveries do not yet clear a long hurdle

Summary: Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in Q3 and reaffirmed its 65,000–70,000 full-year range. But the Oct. 2 close fell 3.1% to $14.30 after trading as high as $15.36, and the remaining guide requires 23,193...

2026-10-04 · 2026-10 / week-1

XELB’s Nasdaq Cure Window Does Not Create a Short Edge

No-trade screen: Reject. Xcel Brands disclosed a Nasdaq minimum-bid deficiency after the Oct. 2 regular session. Nasdaq gave the company until March 29, 2027 to regain compliance; the letter is not an immediate suspensio...